Business bouncing back as borders re-open
Confidence levels up according to latest surveys.
Business confidence levels have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels in the wake of the re-opening of state borders.
Trading, profitability and forward orders all surged for businesses sending confidence higher in every state and territory led by large gains in Victoria and NSW. Conditions rose in all industries, except wholesale, according to the latest NAB business survey.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the improvement in business conditions was being driven by the re-opening of Victoria although all states were seeing gains.
However, he said the measure of employment remained in negative territory with no lift in November.
"While activity is picking up as the economy re-opens, businesses are yet to move back into hiring mode. This is not completely surprising with the labour market often lagging developments in activity, so we will keep closely watching this measure," he said.
The NAB survey was taken in the last week of November, indicating that Victoria's re-opening and the Reserve Bank's cutting of the official interest rate to 0.10 per cent and $100 billion quantitative easing program had filtered through.
Meantime, the weekly measure of consumer confidence by the ANZ and Roy Morgan improved by 1.8 points and is now at its highest level this year.
According to the Morgan survey, consumer confidence is being driven by increasing confidence about the long-term prospects for the Australian economy with more Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy major household items’.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index also rose 4.1 per cent in December, driven by the Federal Treasurer’s remarks that a technical recession was over.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the pandemic-induced recession was clearly different to previous recessions and that consumer confidence was back to pre-COVID-19 levels.
"After only eight months the evidence seems clear that sentiment has fully recovered from the COVID recession," Evans said.
"The surge in sales of household goods we saw earlier in the pandemic is now slowing, but activity remains well above pre-pandemic levels," he said.
Date Published:
8 December 2020