Winners and losers as pandemic hits retail sales
Latest Deloitte survey confirms COVID impact on consumer spending.
Australian retailers are facing a volatile retail environment, with monthly swings in spending and an enormous gulf in performance by sector and across states.
According to the latest Deloitte Access Economics quarterly Retail Forecast, total spending slumped in the June quarter, but a solid performance in June and July suggests stronger momentum in the September quarter.
Highlights from the report:
- Retail spending is faring better than general consumer spending, with retail volumes falling just 3.4 per cent over the June quarter, compared to the 12.1 per cent collapse in household spending volumes.
- Retail sales were well up compared to a year earlier in the months of June and July, and this momentum is expected to cotinue into the September quarter, with retail volumes expected to bounce back by 5.4 per cent.
- The headline print is masking significant divergence across the retail landscape – there is a wide range of growth performance across both categories and states
David Rumbens, Deloitte Access Retail Forecasts principal author, said: “Retail spending has fallen at the fastest rate in nearly 20 years as COVID-19 cast a cloud over the consumer landscape. Yet it pales in comparison to the collapse in total consumer spending experienced over the quarter.
“The average retail growth rate also hides the complexity of the retail environment right now. After slumping in April, spending picked up through the quarter, with June retail sales up 7.4 per cent compared to the previous year.
“And there is an enormous gulf in retail performance by sector. Restrictions have sent cafes, restaurants and catering services into a tailspin, with spending remaining over 20 per cent lower than pre-COVID levels in the month of July.
“Meanwhile, with more people at home more of the time, spending on recreational goods, alcohol, electrical and electronic goods, and hardware, building and garden supplies have surged, with all posting more than 30 per cent gains in the month of July compared to pre-COVID levels,” he said.
Date Published:
9 September 2020